Forecast for Friday 1/16/26 - We Have Red

Gauge Source: https://www.tradingtimemachine.com/trading_forecast.html

The 2 day gauge is leaning into a red position. We have been hovering in the yellow norm area for a while. It seems the historical matches have landed on a negative leaning group of days.

We should take a look at those historical matches for the 2 day hold (tomorrows’ open to Wednesday Open - market closed Monday):

There are 36 historical matches

• Win% 38.89

• Average Winner 0.63%

• Average Loser -0.68%

• Profit Factor 0.58

No so hot.

With tomorrow being Friday and a the market being closed on Monday, this 2 day hold would cover the window until Wednesdays’ open.

Now just so you don’t get crazy eyed with some wacky shorting ideas, lets have a look at the historical matches.

There are some green days as well. And it should be noted with the smallish sample size, that one -3.73% loser does skew things a bit.

To zero in a bit on the core trades with the top loser and winner trades removed we are left with a bit different look.

Win% 38.24%

Average Winner 0.54%

Average Loser -0.56%

Still showing a general lean to losing just over 6 out of 10 trades. The gauge would have pulled up a bit to a reading of -3. Right on the edge of the red.

If you haven’t taken short term profits on the run from the last solid green reading for December 18th, then now might be time to grab some trading profits.

Have a Great Night!

Dave Johnson

Developer of the Elite SPY Trading System